环境转变论与中国环境问题

2000637(202)()JOURNALOFPEKINGUNIVERSITY(HumanitiesandSocialSciences)No.6,2000GeneralNo.202Vol.37(,100871):,,:;U;:X22:A:100025919(2000)0620105207:2000201204:(1962),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,18,,,,,,,1.U??,,,,,,,30,501©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.8090,,:U,(Kuznets),,,,[1],,,,,(Rogers),,,,,3000,[1](P15),,,,(3000),(Panayotou),GNP823,315%,,,,GNP4000,2%,[2](Grossman)(Krueger),,,(BOD)(COD)U,,GDP8000-10000[3](P371)U,,2.U,,,,:(1);(2);(3);(4);(5)[2],,,,,,,,,60160,,,,,U,,©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,,19711994,214112(TOE),1/3,1/10,,,,,,,,,,,(CharlesL.Harper),,:(1);(2),;(3);(4)[4](P78),,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,U,,,,19801976,1980,1976[1],,,UU,,,GDP8000,,701©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.1U,,,,,U,;,,U,,1:90,,(D.O.Conner),,10%,[5](P8)19751990,40,;,,21519811991,3,215,50%,19781998,1351319,1978571441998136000,2,,80,90(1)1998,30%90,1998(),38%,176,52%,16%,36%,1,,,19972267174,383877,17%;105849,40100,38%,801©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.1GDP(%)GDP()()()()199191218792358687846535875919931315293921949199342361708199510154854221894310747864474199691655762058881111196658971997818607918832961133786574919987186392171235511080763648:,1999;,19982GDP()GDP()5634014068340144150440175403201381227001675122014253450154130013642200161951301424259014408101337730017155000127516301483763013564680146209301362227501953715013284470145331301389455014129010137388101393748012881360136373101493715013951670135:,1997;1999,2()19951996(22),GDP,,,,,,,,(),,901©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.;,,,,,,,,,,,GDP5000-8000,,,,,,90199421,19962010,,,,GNP017%,0183%,1%,,1999,,199819971420,1999,,,1998,1997(1),19975%,1997718%717%1212%,,,,,U,,,,,,,,,,GDP11000,,,GDP4000,,,,,,,,,,,011©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.U,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[][1]K.F.JALAL.SustainableDevelopment,EnvironmentandPovertyNexus[A].AsianDevelopmentBank,OccasionalPapers[C]No.7,1993.[2]T.PANAYOTOU.EnvironmentalDegradationatDifferentStagesofEconomicDevelopment[A].TheEnvi2ronmentalCrisisandSustainableLivelihoodsintheThirdWorld[M].London:MacmillanPress,1995.[3]GENEM.GROSSMANandALANB.KRUEGER.EconomicGrowthandTheEnvironment[J].Quarter2lyJournalofEconomics,1995,110,(2).[4].[M].,,:,1998.[5]DAVIDO.CONNOR.ManagingtheEnvironmentwithRapidIndustrialization:FromtheEastAsianEx2perience[M].DevelopemntCenteroftheOECD1994.()EnvironmentTransitionandChinasEnvironmentalProblemLIJian2xin(TheInstituteofSociologyandAnthropology,PikingUniversity,Beijing100871,China)Abstract:Thereisaninevitablerelationshipbetweeneconomyandenvironment.ThefactthatChinasenvironmentalqualitydeteriorateswiththerapidgrowthofitseconomyinrecentyearsisafineexample.Inordertokeepitsrapideconomicgrowthandtoimproveitsenvironmentalqual2ityatthesametime,itisofvitalsignificanceforChinatorealizetheinevitabilityandpossibleso2lutionstoitspresentenvironmentalproblem.Keywords:environmentalproblem;invertedU2shapedcurve;sustainabledevelopment111©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.